WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Despite strikes on Ukraine’s power system and other crucial winter infrastructure, US intelligence expects the slowed tempo of combat to continue in the coming months and finds no sign of a diminished Ukrainian determination to resist, according to the Director of National Intelligence on Saturday.
“We’re already witnessing a slower pace of the fight and we expect that to continue in the coming months,” Avril Haines said at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in California.
She stated that both the Ukrainian and Russian military would be aiming to rebuild and restock in preparation for a counter-offensive after the winter, but it was unclear what that would look like, and she added:
When asked about the consequences of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s power grid and other civilian infrastructure, Haines said Moscow’s goal was to weaken Ukrainians’ resolve to fight, adding, “I don’t believe we’re seeing any signs of that being compromised right now at this moment.”
She noted that Russia was also attempting to undermine Ukraine’s ability to prosecute combat, and that Kyiv’s economy was suffering greatly.
“Obviously, it can have an effect over time. The magnitude of the effect will be determined by how much they go after, what they are capable of accomplishing, the resilience of that key infrastructure, and our ability to assist them in defending it.”
“The Ukrainian economy is in shambles. It’s been disastrous, and obviously, bringing the grid down will have an influence on that as well.”
Haines speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin was shocked that his troops had not achieved more.
“I believe Putin is becoming more aware of the issues that the Russian military faces. But it’s not obvious to us that he has a whole view of how difficult they are at this point… we see ammo shortages, morale issues, supply challenges, logistics, and a slew of other issues.”
Putin’s political objectives in Ukraine did not appear to have changed, according to Haines, but US intelligence analysts believed he was willing to scale back his near-term military objectives “on a temporary basis with the idea that he might then come back at this issue at a later time.”
She stated that Russia looked to be depleting its weapons stockpiles “very swiftly.”
“It’s really very astonishing, and our personal view is that they are not capable of generating what they are investing at this level,” she added.
“That’s why you see them rushing to other nations to try to obtain ammunition… and we’ve suggested that their precise munitions are running out much faster in many ways.”
Haines stated that the US has “saw some movement” in North Korean weapons supply, but “not a lot at this time.”
She said that Iran had provided Russia with drones and that Moscow was searching for additional sorts of precision bombs from Tehran, which would be “extremely frightening in terms of their potential.”