BERLIN, Germany (AP) — Top American and European officials are gathering in Berlin on Thursday to present a united front to Russia amid fears that it is contemplating an invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 soldiers near Ukraine, and US Vice President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that he believes Moscow will invade. He warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that if he did, his country would pay a “heavy price” in terms of lives lost and probable exclusion from the global banking system.

In this context, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with officials from Germany, France, and the United Kingdom on Thursday for a so-called Quad discussion. He had met with Ukraine’s president in Kyiv the day before to address the danger.

Russia has rejected any plans for an invasion and, in turn, has accused the West of arranging “provocations” in Ukraine, citing the recent supply of armaments to the nation by British military transport planes.

According to Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, Ukrainian and Western talk of an impending Russian strike is a “cover for staging large-scale provocations of their own, including those of a military kind.”

The United States and its NATO partners confront a difficult challenge in dealing with the Ukraine situation. In the event of another Russian invasion, Biden has stated that he will not send combat troops. He may, however, pursue a variety of less spectacular but still hazardous military choices, including as assisting a post-invasion Ukrainian resistance.

The reason for not immediately intervening in a Russia-Ukraine conflict is straightforward. The US has no contractual obligations to Ukraine, and conflict with Russia would be a huge risk. However, doing nothing carries its own set of hazards.

The difficulties of keeping the US and its NATO partners unified in their reaction to Russia were on display Wednesday, when Biden cautioned Russia against any invasion but also indicated a “small intrusion” would evoke a less severe response. He later clarified that he was speaking to a non-military measure, such as a cyberattack — but the comment drew a flood of criticism at home that he was not harsh enough on Russia and increased the prospect of international tensions.

Blinken, America’s top diplomat, is scheduled to make a speech on the Ukraine issue in Berlin later Thursday before heading to Geneva, where he will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday.

Blinken will elaborate on the American position on Ukraine, the broader historical context of the current crisis, and the need for allies to present a unified front to confront Russia’s aggression and violations of international norms in his speech to the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences, according to US officials. They talked on the condition of anonymity because they had not been given permission to publicly preview Blinken’s speech.

Blinken is also likely to address the Russian people, outlining the price that their country will bear if an invasion occurs.

While the summit in Berlin will mostly focus on Ukraine, officials said that continuing discussions to resurrect an agreement aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear programme will also be discussed.

Following his meeting with Bilnken this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to arrive in Poland on Thursday, a country that has long backed Ukraine’s aspirations to become more democratic.

This westward movement is a crucial source of contention in the conflict with Russia. Moscow wants assurances that NATO would not expand to encompass Ukraine and other ex-Soviet republics, as well as that the alliance will not send weapons to those countries.

In security talks last week, Washington and its partners flatly rejected Moscow’s demands, but left the door open for future talks on weapons control and confidence-building measures to defuse tensions.

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